Economic Impact of Proposed Change to Public Charge Rule: State-Level Analysis

Taking our analysis of potential national impacts of the proposed public charge rule change, NAE now takes a look at what the economic effects could be in 11 different states.

New York

  • About 92 percent of all adults active in the labor force who would be affected by the public charge rule are employed.
  • More than 183,800 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $10 billion. Should they leave the United States, New York State’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $6.2 billion. The total cost to the New York State economy could therefore amount to $16.2 billion.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major New York State industries in particular, including:
    • Education and health services, where about 3.1 percent of all workers (roughly 84,348 people) would be affected.
    • Construction, where 4.9 percent of all workers (about 29,517 people) are likely to be affected.
    • Manufacturing, where 4.2 percent of all workers (about 24,594 people) would be affected.
    • Trade, transportation, and utilities, where 6.3 percent of all workers (about 103,785 people) would be affected.
    • Accommodation and food, where 9.9 percent of all workers (about 57,961 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 755,328 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Ohio

  • More than 26,599 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $800 million. Should they leave the United States, Ohio’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $600 million more. The total cost to the Ohio economy could therefore amount to $1.4 billion.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major Ohio industries in particular, including:
    • Construction, where 2.4 percent of all workers (about 7,328 people) are likely to be affected.
    • Professional and business services, where 1.5 percent of all workers (about 8,586 people) would be affected.
    • Trade, transportation, and utilities, where 0.5 percent of all workers (about 5,783 people) would be affected.
    • Education and health services, where 0.1 percent of all workers (about 1,896 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 67,374 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Pennsylvania

  • Approximately 86 percent of all adults active in the labor force who would be affected by the public charge rule are employed.
  • More than 31,998 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $1.1 billion. Should they leave the United States, Pennsylvania’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $800 million. The total cost to the Pennsylvania economy could therefore amount to $1.9 billion.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major Pennsylvania industries in particular, including:
    • Trade, transportation, and utilities, where 1.2 percent of all workers (about 15,378 people) would be affected.
    • Professional and business services, where 1.0 percent of all workers (about 6,872 people) would be affected.
    • Accommodation and food, where 2.4 percent of all workers (about 9,905 people) would be affected.
    • Education and health services, where 0.4 percent of all workers (about 5,455 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 138,347 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Michigan

  • More than 20,000 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $1 billion. Should they leave the United States, Michigan’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $600 million. The total cost to the Michigan economy could therefore amount to $1.6 billion.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major Michigan industries in particular, including:
    • Natural resources and mining, where 8.2 percent of all workers (about 6,526 people) are likely to be affected.
    • Manufacturing, where 1.0 percent of all workers (about 8,494 people) would be affected.
    • Construction, where 0.5 percent of all workers (about 1,508 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 95,078 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Illinois

  • Roughly 93 percent of all adults active in the labor force who would be affected by the public charge rule are employed.
  • More than 70,427 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $3.2 billion. Should they leave the United States, Illinois’ economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $2.6 billion. The total cost to the Illinois economy could therefore amount to $5.8 billion.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major Illinois industries in particular, including:
    • Education and health services, where about 0.3 percent of all workers (roughly 4,045 people) would be affected.
    • Manufacturing, where 3.8 percent of all workers (about 30,715 people) would be affected.
    • Trade, transportation, and utilities, where 1.6 percent of all workers (about 20,244 people) would be affected.
    • Professional and business services, where 3.7 percent of all workers (about 31,701 people) would be affected.
    • Accommodation and food, where 2.6 percent of all workers (about 12,225 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 271,158 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Indiana

  • More than 18,120 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $500 million. Should they leave the United States, Indiana’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $400 million. The total cost to the Indiana economy could therefore amount to $900 million.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major Indiana industries in particular, including:
    • Construction, where 0.7 percent of all workers (about 1,600 people) are likely to be affected.
    • Manufacturing, where 2.3 percent of all workers (about 12,536 people) would be affected.
    • Professional and business services, where 0.8 percent of all workers (about 2,086 people) would be affected.
    • Accommodation and food, where 0.9 percent of all workers (about 2,086 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 45,669 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Minnesota

  • About 84 percent of all adults active in the labor force who would be affected by the public charge rule are employed.
  • More than 12,120 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $.8 billion. Should they leave the United States, Minnesota’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $0.6 billion. The total cost to the Minnesota economy could therefore amount to $1.4 billion.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major Minnesota industries in particular, including:
    • Education and health services, where about 0.4 percent of all workers (roughly 2,552 people) would be affected.
    • Trade, transportation, and utilities, where 1.9 percent of all workers (about 9,817 people) would be affected.
    • Professional and business services, where 2.5 percent of all workers (about 8,200 workers) would be affected.
    • Accommodation and food, where 3.4 percent of all workers (about 7,892 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 64,062 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Wisconsin

  • More than 3,110 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education.
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $500 million. Should they leave the United States, Wisconsin’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $300 million. The total cost to the Wisconsin economy could therefore amount to $800 million.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major Wisconsin industries in particular, including:
    • Education and health services, where about 0.2 percent of all workers (roughly 1,369 people) would be affected.
    • Manufacturing, where 1.1 percent of all workers (about 6,912 people) would be affected.
    • Natural resources and mining, where 6.1 percent of all workers (about 7,731 people) would be affected.
    • Accommodation and food, where 1.5 percent of all workers (about 2,968 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 26,719 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Kentucky

  • More than 2,866 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $500 million. Should they leave the United States, Kentucky’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $300 million. The total cost to the Kentucky economy could therefore amount to $800 million.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major Kentucky industries in particular, including:
    • Education and health services, where about 0.4 percent of all workers (roughly 2,244 people) would be affected.
    • Construction, where 4.0 percent of all workers (about 6,675 people) are likely to be affected.
    • Trade, transportation, and utilities, where 1.1 percent of all workers (about 4,412 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 36,257 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Iowa

  • Nearly 93 percent of all adults active in the labor force who would be affected by the public charge rule are employed.
  • More than 8,435 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $400 million. Should they leave the United States, Iowa’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $200 million. The total cost to the Iowa economy could therefore amount to $600 million.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 33,092 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

Texas

  • About 96 percent of all adults active in the labor force who would be affected by the public charge rule are employed.
  • More than 68,227 people likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule is $6.3 billion. Should they leave the United States, Texas’ economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $5.5 billion. The total cost to the Texas economy could therefore amount to $11.8 billion.
  • By encouraging or forcing workers to leave or go underground, the public charge rule change will have a destabilizing effect for several major Texas industries in particular, including:
    • Education and health services, where about 0.6 percent of all workers (roughly 17,881 people) would be affected.
    • Construction, where 7.0 percent of all workers (about 89,077 people) are likely to be affected.
    • Trade, transportation, and utilities, where 3.1 percent of all workers (about 49,447 people) would be affected.
    • Accommodation and food, where 4.6 percent of all workers (about 47,604 people) would be affected.
  • In 2017, there were approximately 600,477 non-citizens who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

10-State Great Lakes Region (NY, OH, PA, MI, IL, IN, MN, WI, KY, IA)

  • The total annual income of workers who would be affected by the public charge rule in the Great Lakes region is $18.8 billion. Should they leave the United States, the region’s economy would suffer negative indirect economic effects of $12.6 billion. The total cost to the region’s economy could therefore amount to $31.4 billion.
  • More than 375,000 people in the region likely to be affected by the public charge rule have at least some college education
  • In 2017, there were approximately 1.5 million non-citizens in the region who reported receiving monetary or non-monetary aid, for either themselves or for their non-citizen children.

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