Election 2020 Recap: Examining a Diverse Hispanic Electorate
Date: November 12, 2020
This year’s election saw the most racially and ethnically diverse U.S. electorate in history. For the first time in U.S. history, Hispanic Americans were the largest minority group among eligible voters, overtaking African Americans. This shift in the electorate is likely to have significant effects on the outcomes of future elections.
While Hispanics nationwide supported Democrats in this election, results at a state level show that Hispanic voters are far from monolithic, with the diversity among Hispanic voters reflected in their varying voting preferences. For example, Hispanic voters in Florida were almost evenly split between the two presidential candidates while Hispanic voters in other states were far more likely to support Joe Biden.
Research has already some shed light on what drives these nuances. Polling has found that younger Hispanic voters and voters of Puerto Rican or Mexican ancestry are much more likely to lean Democratic, while Cuban Americans and Hispanic Americans who have been in the United States for generations are more likely to identify as Republican and are closer to resembling non-Hispanic white Americans. These differences help explain why areas with significant Hispanic populations such as South Florida, Arizona, and the Rio Grande Valley, all ended up voting in such different ways from each other.
With this in mind, we dug deeper into U.S. Census data to look at just how different Hispanic voters are across 6 battleground states with significant Hispanic populations: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas. As the number of Hispanic voters in each of these states continues to grow, the success of future electoral campaigns will inevitably be tied to how well they are able to identify, target, and adapt their messaging to each of these unique Hispanic electorates.
You can jump to each state’s data by clicking here: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas
State-Level Data
Arizona
A young, U.S.-born Mexican American voting bloc that is growing quickly.
Latino Exit Poll: 36% Trump, 63% Biden (source)
Growth 2016-2020
- The number of Hispanic eligible voters grew by 19%, from 1,132,000 to 1,350,000 between 2016 and 2020.
- Hispanics made up about 43% of all new eligible voters in the state.
Demographic Makeup
- Hispanic eligible voters were overwhelmingly Mexican American, with almost 89% identifying as having Mexican ancestry.
- Hispanic eligible voters in Arizona skew much younger than the overall U.S. electorate, with more than 20% of Hispanic voters being under 25 years old (compared to 11% in the U.S. overall).
- More than 60% of Hispanic voters in Arizona were under 45 (compared to 44% in U.S. overall).
- Hispanic eligible voters were overwhelmingly U.S.-born, with nearly half (48%) being third generation Americans or more, and an additional 34% were U.S.-born children of immigrants (second generation).
- Meanwhile, only 18% of Hispanic eligible voters were immigrants.
- About 90% of Hispanic voters identified as white, 9% identified as being Native American or of mixed race.
Arizona: Eligible Voters, 2016-2020
| Race/Ethnicity | 2016 | 2020 | Growth Rate, 2016-2020 | Change, 2016-2020 | |
| White | 2,871,000 | 3,095,000 | 7.8% | +224,000 | |
| Black / African American | 196,000 | 209,500 | 6.9% | +13,500 | |
| Native / Indigenous American | 108,000 | 116,000 | 7.0% | +8,000 | |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 121,000 | 151,000 | 27.3% | +30,000 | Share of Overall Change, 2016-2020 |
| Hispanic | 1,132,000 | 1,350,000 | 19.2% | +218,000 | 43.4% |
| Mixed | 55,000 | 64,000 | 17.2% | +9,000 | |
| Total | 4,484,000 | 4,986,000 | 11.2% | +501,800 |
Arizona, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Race
| Race | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| White | 90.4% |
| Black / African American | 0.3% |
| Native / Indigenous American | 4.2% |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 0.5% |
| Mixed | 4.5% |
Arizona, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Generations in United States
| Immigrant | Second Generation | 3 Generations or More | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.8 | 33.7 | 47.4 |
Source: 2020 Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau. Downloaded from PUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org. Numbers may not total due to rounding.
Arizona, Age Distribution of Hispanic Eligible Voters
| Age Group | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| 18 to 24 | 20.5% |
| 25 to 44 | 41.0% |
| 45 to 64 | 25.6% |
| 65 and Older | 12.9% |
Colorado
A Hispanic electorate that skews much younger, with many third-generation Mexican American voters.
Latino Exit Poll: 38% Trump, 59% Biden (source)
Growth 2016-2020
- The number of Hispanic eligible voters grew by 15%, from 514,000 to 592,000 between 2016 and 2020.
- Hispanics made up about 51% of all new eligible voters in the state.
Demographic Makeup
- The majority of Hispanic eligible voters were Mexican American, with 68% identifying as having Mexican ancestry. Another 20% identified as being “Hispanic” without identifying a country of origin—the majority of them have long roots in the United States (3+ generations).
- Hispanic eligible voters in Colorado skew much younger than the overall U.S. electorate, with more than 22% of Hispanic voters being under 25 years old.
- More than 66% of Hispanic voters in Colorado were under 45.
- Colorado’s Hispanic immigrant eligible voters are much younger than they are on average in the U.S. More than half (52%) of Hispanic immigrant eligible voters were under the age of 45.
- Nationwide, two-thirds of Hispanic eligible immigrants are over the age of 45.
- More than half (51 %) of Hispanic voters in Colorado were third generation Americans or more, while 27% were second generation Americans.
- Meanwhile, 22% of Hispanic eligible voters were immigrants.
- While 87% of Hispanic voters identified as white, more than 10% identified as being mixed race or Native American.
Colorado: Eligible Voters, 2016-2020
| Race / Ethnicity | 2016 | 2020 | Change, 2016-2020 | Growth Rate, 2016-2010 | |
| Non-Hispanic | 3,298,000 | 3,372,000 | +74,000 | 2.2% | Share of Overall Growth, 2016-2020 |
| Hispanic | 514,000 | 592,000 | +78,000 | 15.1% | 51.3% |
| Total | 3,812,000 | 3,964,000 | +152,000 | 4.0% |
Colorado, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Race
| Race | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| White | 86.8% |
| Black / African American | 2.2% |
| Native / Indigenous American | 1.7% |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 0.6% |
| Mixed | 8.7% |
Colorado, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Generations in the United States
| Immigrant | Second Generation | 3 Generations or More | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.6 | 26.7 | 50.6 |
Source: 2020 Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau. Downloaded from PUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org. Numbers may not total due to rounding.
Colorado, Age Distribution of Hispanic Eligible Voters
| Age Group | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| 18 to 24 | 22.4% |
| 25 to 44 | 45.5% |
| 45 to 64 | 22.7% |
| 65 and Older | 9.4% |
Florida
No one group dominates in Florida, with Cubans, Puerto Ricans, and South Americans (particularly Venezuelan and Colombian Americans) making up roughly equal shares of a Hispanic electorate that skews much older and more foreign-born than Hispanics nationwide. While Puerto Ricans tend to lean Democratic, Cubans, Venezuelans, and Colombians tend to be staunchly anti-socialist and lean right.
Latino Exit Poll: 47% Trump, 52% Biden (source)
Growth 2016-2020
- The number of Hispanic eligible voters grew by 23%, from 2,560,000 to 3,146,000 between 2016 and 2020.
- Hispanics made up about 42% of all new eligible voters in the state.
Demographic Makeup
- Florida is one of the few states where the Hispanic electorate is not majority-Mexican American. No one Hispanic group dominates in the state, with the largest group being Cuban Americans (28%), followed by Puerto Ricans (26%), and South Americans (21% including Venezuelans). Meanwhile, Mexican Americans made up only 8% of the Hispanic electorate.
- Hispanic eligible voters in Florida skew much older, with 21% of Hispanic voters being over 65 years old. Meanwhile only 12% of Hispanic voters were under 25.
- Almost half (48%) of Hispanic voters in Florida were immigrants, driven by large numbers of naturalized Cuban and South American immigrants. Nearly 3 out 4 Cuban American and South American eligible voters were immigrants.
- Despite the diversity of the Hispanic electorate in Florida, the overwhelming majority (93%) of Hispanic voters identified as white, with an additional 3% identifying as Black or African American.
Florida: Eligible Voters, 2016-2020
| Race / Ethnicity | 2016 | 2020 | Change, 2016-2020 | Growth Rate, 2016-2020 | |
| White | 8,790,000 | 9,274,000 | +483,000 | 5.5% | |
| Black / African American | 1,901,000 | 2,094,000 | +193,000 | 10.2% | |
| Native / Indigenous American | 49,000 | 61,000 | +11,000 | 22.7% | |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 347,000 | 357,000 | +10,000 | 3.0% | Share of Overall Growth, 2016-2020 |
| Hispanic | 2,560,415 | 3,146,000 | +585,000 | 22.9% | 42.4% |
| Mixed | 92,000 | 191,000 | +98,000 | 106.4% | |
| Total | 13,740,000 | 15,121,000 | +1,382,000 | 10.1% |
Florida, Hispanic Voters by Race
| Race | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| White | 93.2% |
| Black / African American | 3.3% |
| Native / Indigenous American | 0.4% |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 0.4% |
| Mixed | 2.0% |
Florida: Hispanic Eligible Voters by Hispanic Ancestry
| Ancestry | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| Cuban | 28.4% |
| Puerto Rican | 26.2% |
| South American | 20.8% |
| Mexican | 8.3% |
| Central American | 7.8% |
| Dominican | 5.9% |
| Other Hispanic | 2.5% |
Florida, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Generations in United States
| Immigrant | Second Generation | 3 Generations or More | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48.3 | 20.3 | 31.4 |
Source: 2020 Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau. Downloaded from PUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org. Numbers may not total due to rounding.
Florida, Age Distribution of Hispanic Eligible Voters
| Age Group | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| 18 to 24 | 12.3% |
| 25 to 44 | 34.2% |
| 45 to 64 | 32.5% |
| 65 and Older | 21.0% |
Nevada
A majority Mexican American Hispanic electorate that skews older, more racially mixed, and more likely to be the children of immigrants than other states.
Latino Exit Poll: 38% Trump, 61% Biden (source)
Growth 2016-2020
- The number of Hispanic eligible voters grew by almost 16%, from 337,000 to 389,000 between 2016 and 2020.
- Hispanics made up about 17% of all new eligible voters in the state.
Demographic Makeup
- The vast majority (78%) of Hispanic eligible voters in Nevada were Mexican American.
- Hispanic eligible voters in Nevada skew much older, with 21% of Hispanic voters being over 65 years old. Meanwhile only 12% of Hispanic voters were under 25.
- Almost 38% of Hispanic voters in Nevada were children of immigrants, while another 38% were third-generation American or more.
- Meanwhile, 23% of Hispanic voters in Nevada were immigrants.
- Only 80% of Hispanic voters identified as white, while 17% identified as Native American or of mixed race.
Nevada: Eligible Voters, 2016-2020
| Race / Ethnicity | 2016 | 2020 | Growth Rate, 2016-2020 | Change, 2016-2020 | |
| White | 1,147,000 | 1,303,000 | 13.6% | +156,000 | |
| Black / African American | 150,000 | 198,000 | 32.6% | +49,000 | |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 160,000 | 186,000 | 16.3% | +26,000 | Share of Overall Growth, 2016-2020 |
| Hispanic | 337,000 | 389,000 | 15.6% | +52,000 | 17.4% |
| Mixed and Other | 59,000 | 78,000 | 31.5% | +19,000 | |
| Total | 1,852,000 | 2,154,000 | 16.3% | +302,000 |
Nevada, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Race
| Race | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| White | 80.0% |
| Black / African American | 2.6% |
| Native / Indigenous American | 7.4% |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 1.4% |
| Mixed | 8.6% |
Nevada, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Generations in the United States
| Immigrant | Second Generation | 3 Generations or More | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.8 | 37.8 | 38.4 |
Source: 2020 Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau. Downloaded from PUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org. Numbers may not total due to rounding.
Nevada, Age Distribution of Hispanic Eligible Voters
| Age Group | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| 18 to 24 | 18.3% |
| 25 to 44 | 44.1% |
| 45 to 64 | 23.0% |
| 65 and Older | 14.6% |
New Mexico
An older, overwhelmingly U.S.-born Hispanic electorate with long roots in the United States.
Latino Election Poll: 37% Trump, 56% Biden (source)
Growth 2016-2020
- The number of Hispanic eligible voters slightly decreased by 2%, from 517,000 to 508,000 between 2016 and 2020.
Demographic Makeup
- A slight majority (57%) of Hispanic eligible voters in New Mexico identified as Mexican American. Meanwhile, a significant minority identified simply as “Hispanic.” Nearly all people who identified solely as “Hispanic” reported being third-generation (or more) American.
- Hispanic eligible voters in New Mexico skew older, with 50% of Hispanic voters being over 45 years old. Meanwhile only 13% of Hispanic voters were under 25.
- Uniquely, Hispanic voters in New Mexico were overwhelmingly U.S.-born, with 73% of Hispanic voters being third-generation American or more, and an additional 17% Hispanic voters being children of immigrants.
- Meanwhile, less than 10% of Hispanic voters were immigrants.
- The vast majority of Hispanic voters (95%) identified as white.
New Mexico: Eligible Voters, 2016-2020
| Race / Ethnicity | 2016 | 2020 | Change, 2016-2020 | Growth Rate, 2016-2020 |
| Non-Hispanic | 865,000 | 915,000 | +50,000 | 5.8% |
| Hispanic | 517,000 | 508,000 | -9,000 | -1.7% |
| Total | 1,382,000 | 1,423,000 | +41,000 | 3.0% |
New Mexico, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Race
| Race | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| White | 94.6% |
| Black / African American | 0.9% |
| Native / Indigenous American | 1.7% |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 0.6% |
| Mixed | 2.3% |
New Mexico, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Hispanic Ancestry
| Ancestry | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| Mexican | 56.8% |
| Hispanic, none specified | 40.5% |
| Other Hispanic | 2.7% |
New Mexico, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Generations in the United States
| Immigrant | Second Generation | 3 Generations or More | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.7 | 17.4 | 72.8 |
Source: 2020 Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau. Downloaded from PUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org. Numbers may not total due to rounding.
New Mexico, Age Distribution of Hispanic Eligible Voters
| Age Group | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| 18 to 24 | 13.2% |
| 25 to 44 | 36.9% |
| 45 to 64 | 30.9% |
| 65 and Older | 19.0% |
Texas
A largely U.S.-born, Mexican American electorate that identifies nearly universally as white.
Latino Exit Poll: 41% Trump, 58% Biden (source)
Growth 2016-2020
- The number of Hispanic eligible voters grew by 16%, from 4,637,000 to 5,393,000 between 2016 and 2020.
- The majority (71%) of new voters in the state between 2016 and 2020 were Hispanic.
Demographic Makeup
- The overwhelming majority (82%) of Hispanic eligible voters in Texas identified as Mexican American.
- Hispanic eligible voters in Texas skewed overwhelmingly middle aged, with more than two-thirds of voters being between 25 and 65. Only less than 13% of Hispanic voters were over 65 years old. Meanwhile only 19% of Hispanic voters were under 25.
- Hispanic voters in Texas were overwhelmingly U.S.-born, with almost half (48%) being third-generation American or more, and an additional 33% being U.S.-born children of immigrants.
- Meanwhile, 19% of Hispanic voters were immigrants.
- Hispanic voters in Texas nearly universally (96%) identify as white.
Texas, Eligible Voters, 2016-2020
| Race / Ethnicity | 2016 | 2020 | Change, 2016-2020 | Growth Rate, 2016-2020 | |
| White | 9,391,000 | 9,182,000 | -209,000 | -2.2% | |
| Black / African American | 2,070,000 | 2,245,000 | +175,000 | 8.5% | |
| Native / Indigenous American | 73,000 | 85,000 | +12,000 | 17.2% | |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 647,000 | 897,000 | +250,000 | 38.6% | Share of Overall Growth, 2016-2020 |
| Hispanic | 4,637,000 | 5,393,000 | 756,000 | 16.3% | 70.7% |
| Mixed | 159,000 | 245,000 | +85,000 | 53.6% | |
| Total | 16,977,000 | 18,047,000 | +1,070,000 | 6.3% |
Texas, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Race
| Race | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| White | 95.9% |
| Black / African American | 1.4% |
| Native / Indigenous American | 1.7% |
| Asian & Pacific Islander | 0.3% |
| Mixed | 0.7% |
Texas, Hispanic Eligible Voters by Generations in the United States
| Immigrant | Second Generation | 3 Generations or More | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.7 | 33.3 | 48 |
Source: 2020 Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau. Downloaded from PUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org. Numbers may not total due to rounding.
Texas, Age Distribution of Hispanic Eligible Voters
| Age Group | Share of Hispanic Voters |
| 18 to 24 | 18.9% |
| 25 to 44 | 38.5% |
| 45 to 64 | 30.1% |
| 65 and Older | 12.5% |
