Election 2020: Shifting Demographics in U.S. States
Date: October 8, 2020
Last week, we examined how the U.S. electorate has changed nationwide from 2010 to 2018. However, these demographic changes at play nationally are even more pronounced at the state level, especially in many of the states that have developed recently into perennial or emerging swing states in state-wide contests.
Compared with national figures, some states have seen even more significant declines in the share of the electorate for non-Hispanic whites without a college degree. Leading the way here are some key electoral states, such as Nevada (-9.1 percentage points), Florida (-7.6), Utah (-7.4), Minnesota (-7.2), Nebraska (-7.2), and Arizona (-7.1).
Table 1: Top 10 States by Decrease in Share of Electorate, Non-Hispanic White with No College Degree
| Non-Hispanic White | Non-Hispanic White, No College Degree | Non-Hispanic White, College-Educated | Black/African American | Asian | Hispanic | Other | |
| Nevada | -7.9% | -9.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Rhode Island | -6.2% | -8.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Massachusetts | -5.4% | -7.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Oregon | -4.1% | -7.6% | 3.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Florida | -6.0% | -7.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 0.5% |
| Utah | -3.4% | -7.4% | 4.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Minnesota | -3.6% | -7.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Nebraska | -3.1% | -7.2% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Arizona | -5.9% | -7.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 4.3% | 0.5% |
| New Jersey | -5.2% | -7.1% | 1.9% | -0.1% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
Some of this shift is due to increasing shares of the electorate that identify as Hispanic or Asian. For example, in California, Nevada, Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Texas, the Hispanic share of the electorate increased by at least 4 percentage points, compared to the national average of 2.7 percentage points.
Table 2: Top 10 States by Increase in Hispanic Share of Electorate
| Non-Hispanic White | Non-Hispanic White, No College Degree | Non-Hispanic White, College-Educated | Black/African American | Asian | Hispanic | Other | |
| California | -6.4% | -6.8% | 0.4% | -0.4% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 0.5% |
| Nevada | -7.9% | -9.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Florida | -6.0% | -7.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 0.5% |
| Arizona | -5.9% | -7.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 4.3% | 0.5% |
| New Mexico | -5.1% | -5.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| Rhode Island | -6.2% | -8.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Texas | -5.6% | -6.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| New Jersey | -5.2% | -7.1% | 1.9% | -0.1% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
| Illinois | -3.9% | -6.1% | 2.2% | -0.2% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Connecticut | -4.7% | -6.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
Some states saw significant increases in the Asian share of their electorates. Some key states, like Virginia, Nevada, and Minnesota, saw the Asian share of their electorate grow by more than 1 percentage points, compared to the national average of 0.8 percentage points.
Table 3: Top 10 States by Increase in Asian Share of Electorate
| Non-Hispanic White | Non-Hispanic White, No College Degree | Non-Hispanic White, College-Educated | Black/African American | Asian | Hispanic | Other | |
| California | -6.4% | -6.8% | 0.4% | -0.4% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 0.5% |
| New Jersey | -5.2% | -7.1% | 1.9% | -0.1% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
| New York | -4.4% | -6.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Maryland | -5.1% | -6.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Virginia | -3.9% | -6.1% | 2.3% | -0.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Nevada | -7.9% | -9.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Washington | -4.3% | -6.9% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Massachusetts | -5.4% | -7.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Minnesota | -3.6% | -7.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Alaska | -4.7% | -5.3% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
Immigrant voters are also expected to have more electoral weight in this election than in the past. While overall, the immigrant share of the electorate grew by 1.5 percentage points, states like New Jersey (+3.4), Florida (+2.7), Massachusetts (+2.5), Maryland (+2.2), Nevada (+2.2), and Minnesota (+2.2) saw much faster rates of growth in New American voters.
Table 4: Top 10 States by Increase in Immigrant Share of Electorate, 2010-2018
| Eligible Voters, 2010 | Share of Electorate, 2010 | Eligible Voters, 2018 | Share of Electorate, 2018 | Change in Eligible Voters, 2010-2018 | Change in Share of Electorate, 2010-2018 | |
| New Jersey | 892,603 | 15.1% | 1,146,778 | 18.6% | 254,175 | 3.4% |
| Florida | 1,732,571 | 13.2% | 2,430,044 | 15.9% | 697,473 | 2.7% |
| Massachusetts | 448,421 | 9.6% | 609,246 | 12.1% | 160,825 | 2.5% |
| Maryland | 348,455 | 8.6% | 469,252 | 10.9% | 120,797 | 2.2% |
| Nevada | 208,730 | 11.8% | 289,099 | 14.0% | 80,369 | 2.2% |
| Minnesota | 144,985 | 3.8% | 239,964 | 5.8% | 94,979 | 2.1% |
| Rhode Island | 62,496 | 8.1% | 81,478 | 10.2% | 18,982 | 2.1% |
| Alaska | 22,880 | 4.5% | 35,234 | 6.6% | 12,354 | 2.0% |
| District of Columbia | 29,638 | 6.5% | 44,053 | 8.4% | 14,415 | 1.9% |
| New York | 2,152,331 | 16.3% | 2,488,985 | 18.1% | 336,654 | 1.8% |
However, like the nation overall, the biggest changes in the electorate at the state level are seen in the change in the share of the electorate that holds a college degree. While the share of the national electorate with a college degree increased by 4.2 percentage points, in some states, it was significantly higher, including in the District of Columbia (+9.6), Massachusetts (+5.3), Maryland (+5.3), Oregon (+5.3), North Carolina (+5.2), Virginia (+5.1), Colorado (+5.1), Nebraska (+5.0), and Utah (+5.0).
Table 5: Top 10 States by Increase in Share of Electorate with College Degree
| Eligible Voters, 2010 | Share of Electorate, 2010 | Eligible Voters, 2018 | Share of Electorate, 2018 | Change in Eligible Voters, 2010-2018 | Change in Share of Electorate, 2010-2018 | |
| District of Columbia | 213,255 | 46.7% | 296,370 | 56.3% | 83,115 | 9.6% |
| Massachusetts | 1,699,856 | 36.4% | 2,096,590 | 41.7% | 396,734 | 5.3% |
| Maryland | 1,344,206 | 33.3% | 1,664,823 | 38.5% | 320,617 | 5.3% |
| Oregon | 749,915 | 27.1% | 1,005,021 | 32.4% | 255,106 | 5.3% |
| North Carolina | 1,673,304 | 24.5% | 2,262,794 | 29.7% | 589,490 | 5.2% |
| Virginia | 1,800,198 | 31.4% | 2,265,363 | 36.5% | 465,165 | 5.1% |
| Colorado | 1,230,357 | 34.7% | 1,648,986 | 39.8% | 418,629 | 5.1% |
| Nebraska | 337,831 | 25.7% | 423,749 | 30.7% | 85,918 | 5.0% |
| Vermont | 149,925 | 30.8% | 179,393 | 35.8% | 29,468 | 5.0% |
| Utah | 461,564 | 26.1% | 647,479 | 31.1% | 185,915 | 5.0% |
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